Voters returned no absolute majority for any party in the National Assembly. This lower house of parliament has 577 seats, setting the magic number to form a governing coalition at 289. The newly-formed coalition of the Left, the New Popular Front (NPF), holds the most seats, but it falls far short of a majority at 182. So, in order to pass any legislation, the parties will have to find a way to build a coalition of political convenience.

While voting concluded just over a month ago, France is still waiting on a governmen. No prime minister or cabinet have yet been announced, and there is no set deadline in place (and none enforceable per the French Constitution). As France continues to wait, a number of trends will bear paying attention to.

Historically, in France’s Fifth Republic, the president should appoint a prime minister that reflects an absolute majority in the National Assembly. With no absolute majority in place, Macron has more freedom to pick, but if the National Assembly does not approve of the final selection, it does have the power to hold a vote of no confidence to have the prime minister and cabinet resign.

Theoretically, the pick should now come from the largest governing power in the National Assembly, the NPF. The bloc had been unable to agree on who they would nominate as prime minister, with multiple options having been shot down, but finally, in late July, they announced that Lucie Castets would be the candidate.

However, within hours of the announcement, Macron stated on national television that it “was not a matter of a name, but of what majority can be built.” This was widely seen on the Left as disregard for the election results. Yet Castets does not seem to be a popular choice in France. In the latest polling, 58% of French citizens do not approve of Castets as their prime minister.

No matter the candidate, the prospective prime minister will have to appease a split government. Given the slim margins between parties, this may mean a difficult path ahead.

Initial polling largely predicted that the far right would sweep the vote in France. In the first round, RN led with 33.1% of the votes. Thirty-nine deputies RN were immediately elected without passing on to a runoff. This was a historic first for a party that previously had never cemented a first round win.

The second round led to very different results because leftist and centrist candidates struck electoral agreements to block the far right by any means possible. Those in Macron’s camp and the NPF called on citizens to vote for anything but the far right, and they stepped down in each other’s favor when their counterpart had more support. It worked, and the electoral surge RN had been expecting did not materialize.

Macron will also have an incredibly difficult time recovering from his decision to call these unexpected, destabilizing elections. In the eyes of his own citizens, his credibility is severely undermined. According to the latest polling, one in every three French citizens is worried for their political future. In the eyes of his own party, recovering from the breach of trust caused by his decision to dissolve the National Assembly with absolutely no warning, will be close to, if not outright, impossible.

The president is allowed to dissolve the parliament once in a year. With a National Assembly incapable of passing legislation, he could be tempted to do it again. This would ensue further chaos in French domestic politics, and political stability would be a pipe dream for French citizens.

With this instability looming, the French are having debates on everything from podcasts to mainstream media on whether or not a Sixth Republic, i.e. an entirely new constitution, could be established. While this is still a burgeoning debate for some (though the NPF already has it in its current proposed political program), the conversation around the power of the executive is happening. Many are arguing for shifting more power to the National Assembly, away from the executive. While a Sixth Republic isn’t expected to happen tomorrow, these conversations have taken a new urgency.

As of now, with no prime minister announced, France is entering into unknown territory. Though the previous government recently resigned, it will remain in power until a new one is established. This transition has historically lasted around ten days, but word has it that the current government will last through the Summer Olympics in Paris.

Unfortunately, France cannot afford instability at the moment. In addition to hosting the Olympics this year, the country is facing an increasing amount of terrorist threats, and the government continues to fight rampant Russian disinformation campaigns. All while, the war in Ukraine threatens overall European security. As France figures itself out, there is no denying that this next government will define the future of French, and European, politics for years to come.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.